The NBA Draft: Experience vs. Talent

It’s often a conceptual argument.  Is experience and productivity more important than raw talent and potential?  It’s a vague question.  You can ask almost anybody that, not just sports fans, but never is it more relevant than the NBA Draft.

Do you value a player who puts up numbers, wins and minutes in school?  Or do you choose the younger option with all that upside and all those questions?  Everybody answers differently and every team picks differently.  Those that choose experience usually defend it with the same vernacular.  “I’ll always choose a guy that wins.”  They preach about it in some misguided belief that it makes them “old school.”  It’s hard as a true basketball fan to argue against it, though.

Out of principle, who would select a player who hasn’t proven anything over an established presence?  It’s like supporting laziness, leaving school early and not trying until you get the big money, but in a league where the stars that dominate are in their 20’s, it’s hard to not see that choosing a younger player with unlimited skill is the wrong option.  Especially if you believe in your coaching staff.  You get an extra couple years to develop under the team’s guidanc, but the problem with the system is that we classify and group these players with such carelessness that their stuck inside a box before they even know where they are.

Just writing this article makes me as culpable as any Skip Bayless rant filled with generalities and clichés.  The more teams judge players as complete individuals the better chance they have at discovering the right talent for their locker room.  These players are too young to be stereotyped.  Maybe it’s the over-saturated media that churns out the same story in 58 different venues that’s to blame.  Maybe it’s our perception.  We’re so distant from the players that we barely see them as people.  Whatever it is, you can be sure that certain teams passed on players because of preconceived notions, and they could pay for it later.

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Fear the Brow! No. 1 Pick Anthony Davis Raises Eyebrows In New Orleans

Anthony Davis is the consensus No. 1 pick in the 2012 NBA draft. His resume reads like a laundry list that is normally reserved for legends: SEC player of the year, Naismith Award and Wooden Award winner, AP player of the year, AP first-team All-American, and the most outstanding player in the Final Four after leading Kentucky to a national title.

So what’s next for Davis? How about NBA superstar.

That may be quite a lofty status for a guy who only burst onto the scene two years ago after a 7-inch growth spurt catapulted him from an unknown shooting guard in high school to being named the No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 NBA draft. But Davis is a special talent. He has the skill set comparable to Kevin Garnett and a demeanor similar to Tim Duncan. If Davis comes close to accomplishing what KG and TD did in their NBA careers, he’ll do just fine.

“He understands how to play basketball. He is always in position defensively,” former college coach and current ESPNU analyst Dan Dakich said about Davis, who rejected 186 shots as a freshman and averaged five blocked shots per game.

“There’s a confidence there that only comes out when it’s game time,” Hornets coach Monty Williams said. “His job is continue to improve, win games, and increase his earning power. But at the same time I want him to have fun.”

Davis has an unlimited ceiling. He is listed at 6 feet 9 inches tall but has a eye-popping 7-6 wingspan. At 222 pounds, he may need to add a few more pounds to absorb all the banging in the paint, but his athleticism is off the charts and has guard-like skills.

And as far as that ridiculous unibrow, well, let’s just say it is not going away anytime soon.

“When I first got to Kentucky guys were saying ‘Get rid of it.’ But me being me loving who I am and being thankful the way God created me, I just said ‘No.’ I really can’t cut it because it has gone global so I really have to keep it now.”

Now that Davis’ famous unibrow is here to stay, one nickname seems appropriate: The Unablocker.

Davis’ basketball acumen will be tested immediately at the NBA level. The New Orleans Hornets are already calling him “the savior,” which is a ton of pressure placed on guy who is just two years removed from high school. New Orleans is starving for a superstar after its favorite son, Chris Paul, turned his back on the city and approved a trade to the Los Angeles Clippers.

New Hornets owner Tom Benson needs a headliner to fill seats and Davis is going to be the face of the franchise for years to come. “Boy, he is just a delight. I get a good feeling from him,” said Benson, who also owns the New Orleans Saints.

“New Orleans is a great city. I know [the team] really works hard. Their main goal is play hard and play defense,” Davis said. “When I come here I just try to contribute as much as I can and do what Coach [Monty] Williams want me to do.”

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Is Jared Sullinger Worth the Risk?

When the NBA draft comes along, there are certain stock characters involved every year.  There’s the superstar that’s a lock for the number one pick.  There’s the kid who didn’t produce in college but has potential.  There’s the successful college player who gets labeled a “winner,” even though scouts doubt their talent or size.  Then then there’s the player who’s had injury concerns.  They usually are anticipated to be a higher draft pick then they end up, and their descent is due to questions about their health.

It’s always a tough decision.  Do you draft somebody you know has documented injury problems?  It’s a risk, but if it works out, it’s always worth it.  These kind of players play with a chip on their shoulder.  This year, Jared Sullinger is that guy.

Jared Sullinger is a winner who’s shown he has NBA strength and skills, along with a proclivity for the big stage.  He looked like the ideal draft pick just a couple weeks ago, but once the rumors start, it’s nearly impossible to stop them.  Concerns about his back have pushed him out of being a potential lottery pick into a projected mid-20’s pick, he wasn’t even invited to the draft.

It must be hard for somebody not much older than myself to watch his stock in life drop significantly over fear of a back injury.  Everything Sullinger worked for has been taken away, and he will have to work as hard as he did in college if he wants to be a star in the NBA.  He’s demonstrated a will to be great, and if I’m a team in the mid 20’s, I can’t think of a better risk to take late in the first round, and if the Celtics have the opportunity to grab him, I pray that they do.  I’ll take somebody I know can play and win any day over a prospect who’s demonstrated nothing in his career.

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NBA Draft Big Board: Top 30

In lieu of the NBA Draft Lottery tonight, we have decided to list our projected rankings come Draft Night!

1. Anthony Davis-PF, Kentucky

2. Bradley Beal- SG, Florida

3. Thomas Robinson-F, Kansas

4. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist-SF, Kentucky

5. Andre Drummond- C, Uconn

6. Harrison Barnes- SF, UNC

7. Jared Sullinger- PF, Ohio State

8. Damian Lillard-PG, Weber State

9. Perry Jones-PF, Baylor

10. John Henson-F, UNC

11. Jeremy Lamb- SG, Uconn

12. Dion Waiters- PG, Syracuse

13. Tyler Zeller- C, UNC

14. Terrence Jones- F, Kentucky

15. Meyers Leonard- C, Illinois

16. Quincy Miller- PF, Baylor

17. Austin Rivers- G, Duke

18. Kendall Marshall-PG, UNC

19. Terrence Ross- SG, Washington

20. Arnett Moultrie- F/C, Mississippi State

21. Moe Harkless- SF, St. John’s

22. Marquis Teague- PG, Kentucky

23. Fab Melo- C, Syracuse

24. Tony Wroten Jr- PG, Washington

25. Royce White- SF, Iowa State

26. Jeff Taylor- SF, Vanderbilt

27. Draymond Green- SF, Michigan State

28. Will Barton- SG, Ohio State

29. Doron Lamb- SG, Kentucky

30. Andrew Nicholson- PF, St. Bonaventure

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2012 NBA Mock Draft Picks 1-15

Note:  Lottery has not happened yet so order is projected on record

Pick 1) Charlotte Bobcats: Anthony Davis 6’10” 220 PF/C Kentucky Freshman

14.3 points, 10.0 rebounds, 4.7 Blocks

No brainer pick at number one. Great defensive presence and should help this team pick up some more wins next year.

Pick 2) Washington Wizards: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 6’7” 210 SF Kentucky Freshman

11.8 points, 7.6 rebounds, 2.0 assists

I would not be shocked if they went Thomas Robinson, another good pick. However, Gilchrist will love playing with John Wall. They could be a great tandem for many years to come.

Pick 3) Cleveland Cavaliers: Bradley Beal 6’4” 207 SG Florida Freshman

14.6 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.2 assists

Would be a solid fit for this team, but if they go big man I see them picking Drummond. Cavaliers are a talented young team and only a few players away from being a late seed playoff team in the Eastern Conference.

Pick 4) New Orleans Hornets: Thomas Robinson 6’8” 240 PF Kansas Junior

17.9 points, 11.8 rebounds, 1.9 assists

Robinson has great athleticism and strength and would be a good compliment to Eric Gordon. Thomas Robinson’s great season and great tournament run really helped him move up draft boards.

Pick 5) Sacramento Kings: Andre Drummond 6’10” 270 PF UConn Freshman

10.2 points, 7.7 rebounds, 2/7 blocks

Drummond didn’t really live up to the hype in his freshman year but he has a lot of potential. I think a Drummond and Cousins combo would be dominant. Keep in mind Cousins asked for a trade so Drummond could also serve as his replacement.

Pick 6) Portland Trail Blazers (from New Jersey): Jared Sullinger 6’9” 265 PF Ohio State Sophomore

17.6 points, 9.3 rebounds

Sullinger would have been a clear top 5 pick last year, could drop further this year but I love his post game and think he would be a great player for the Trail Blazers.

Pick 7) Golden State Warriors (could go to the Utah Jazz): Harrison Barnes 6’8” 215 SF UNC Sophomore

17.4 points, 5.2 rebounds, 1 assist

Barnes is too good to pass up here. I love his offensive game but want to see him be more clutch in the big game. He is another guy with a whole lot of potential.

Pick 8 ) Toronto Raptors: Kendall Marshall 6’4” 197 PG UNC Freshman

7.8 points, 2.6 rebounds, 9.7 assists

Marshall is a great point guard and leader. UNC was not the same team without him. He would be a great replacement if solid PG Jose Calderon leaves. I wouldn’t be surprised if they went with Marshall’s teammate John Henson here too.

Pick 9) Detroit Pistons: Perry Jones III 6’11” 235 SF Baylor Sophomore 

14.0 points, 7.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists

I liked him better last year but I still think he has a lot of potential. Jones is another guy who can disappear in the big game. Detroit has some nice young pieces so Jones would help.

Pick 10) New Orleans Hornets (from Minnesota): Damian Lillard 6’2” 190 PG Weber State Junior

24.5 points, 5.1 rebounds, 4.0 assists

Lillard is great athletic point guard who can shoot. Kind of reminds me of a Russell Westbrook. A trio of Eric Gordon, Thomas Robinson, and Damian Lillard could quickly get a lot of attention in the league.

Pick 11) Portland Trail Blazers: Jeremy Lamb 6’5” 185 SG UConn Sophomore

17.7 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.8 assists

Lamb is great at creating his own shot and will immediately come in as one of their leading scorers. He will also help the fans in Portland to forget about Brandon Roy.

Pick 12) Milwaukee Bucks: John Henson 6’10” 220 PF UNC Junior

13.8 points, 10.1 rebound, 2.9 blocks

Henson is a great defender but needs to put on some muscle. Could be a great player in this league in a few years and will play well off of Brandon Jennings.

Pick 13) Phoenix Suns: Terrence Jones 6’9” 244 SF Kentucky Sophomore

12.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.8 blocks

If he was more consistent he would be a higher pick but Jones still has a lot of potential. He is also very unselfish and good at playing with others.

Pick 14) Houston Rockets: Arnett Moultrie 6’10” 230 PF Mississippi St. Junior

15.8 points, 10.6 rebounds, 1.1 assists

I kept going back and forth between Moultrie and Tyler Zeller here. I like Moultrie a lot and will come in and really help their front court.

Pick 15) Philadelphia 76ers: Meyers Leonard 7’ 245 C Illinois Sophomore

13.6 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.9 blocks

The Sixer’s can use another big man but he will take a few years to get in his zone. If they go guard I see them going with Terrence Ross.

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