Pushing the Panic Button in the Second Week of the Fantasy Baseball Season

If there is one thing that never ceases to amaze, it is the sheer number of fantasy baseball owners that panic as early as the second week of the baseball season. With such a small sample size, it is easy to over-react when players have a poor start to the season. However, there are often warning signs that begin to take shape early in a season and the key to success often lies in recognizing the difference between alarm and plain old ‘slow starters’. Here are several players and a diagnosis after less than two weeks of baseball games:

Michael Bourn (ATL)

The Braves leadoff man has managed to reach base only 5 times in his first 6 games so he hasn’t really had the chance to show off his wheels so far in 2012. With only 1 stolen base in 2 attempts, Bourne will no doubt pick things up once he starts swinging the bat a little better. Dee Gordon may be around to challenge Bourn’s National League stolen base crown but expect a bounce back for the Brave’s and the man at the top of their batting order.

With only 2 hits in his first 20 at bats, Youkilis is off to a slow start along with the rest of his Red Sox teammates. Groin, hip and back injuries plagued him last season when he hit a career low .258. There were warning signs throughout spring training in regard to his health and he is a risky play to say the least. Although it is early, the Boston third basemen may be in for a long season.

Albert Pujols (LAA)

The new Angel has struggled out of the gate with only 5 hits in his first six games (with 0 home runs). Is his slow start due to switching teams? Switching leagues? Has his bat slowed down? None of the above. Pujols got off to a slow start in 2011 and ended the season with his usual home run rate and impressive counting stats. The greatest hitter of his generation will still be the king of the hill. Be patient.

Mike Napoli (TEX)

Prior to 2011, Napoli struggled to get regular at bats even when splitting time between catching and acting as the DH. Last season while batting in a potent line up in a hitter’s paradise of a home park, Napoli had a career season on the strength of an impressive showing after the All Star break. Injuries and inconsistency have plagued Napoli throughout his time in the big leagues and a slow start in 2012 should not come as much of a surprise. If you can get decent value in a trade, I say pull the trigger.

Jose Bautista (TOR)

The naysayers have been predicting his decline for the last 2 seasons. Hitting only .174 (4 hits in 6 games) to open the year, Bautista has said that his timing is a little off. Don’t let the poor second half of 2011 fool you. The Jays slugger has admitted to an injury which slowed him after the All Star break last season. The Jays’ clubhouse and on-field leader will soon be terrorizing AL East pitchers again very soon.

Giancarlo Stanton (MIA)

Stanton has been slowed by a knee issue all throughout spring training and into the regular season. It doesn’t seem to be a major issue but that doesn’t make it any less alarming. In fact, a lingering problem can be much worse than one that lands a player on the disabled list since playing through a nagging injury often leads to an unproductive season at the plate. There are some warning signs here to be heeded.

Although it is never a good idea to ‘panic’ in fantasy baseball (this leads to far too many rash decisions which could cost you the season), when players get off to a slow start, it is often nothing more than a mini-slump. However, there are always cases where it could warrant concern.

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2012 MLB Free Agency

Everyone knows about the big name players that changed teams this off-season: Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, Jose Reyes, C.J. Wilson and so on. However, quite a few under the radar players are also wearing new jerseys in 2012, and here are a couple that I feel could have a sizable impact with their new clubs, and your fantasy baseball teams.

San Francisco Giants, (OF) Melky Cabrera

For a team that seems to struggle putting up offensive numbers in recent years, I think Melky Cabrera brings a lot to the table. Last year with Kansas City, Melky had the best season of his career; 155 games played, 201 hits, 18 home runs, 87 runs batted in, 20 stolen bases and a .305 batting average. It seems Melky may be hitting his stride as he has carried that success into his first year with San Francisco. In 52 at-bats so far this spring, Melky has 19 hits with 3 home runs and a .365 batting average. This could be just what the Giants are looking for; a solid everyday player with experience and the potential to put up some much needed offense.

Kansas City Royals, (SP) Jonathan Sanchez

Sanchez may be the perfect fit for a KC rotation that ranked 27th in the majors in team E.R.A. last season. Despite a disappointing 2011 with San Francisco, in which he spent a good amount of time on the DL and struggled with his control, Sanchez has tremendous upside. In 2010, Jonathan had a 13-9 record, a 3.07 E.R.A, 193.1 innings pitched and 205 strikeouts. So far this spring, his numbers have been far from impressive. Some say his velocity is down, but I believe he is just adjusting to his new team and his first year in the American League. Sanchez has the potential to be a 200+ innings and 200+ strikeout guy each season. In San Francisco he pitched well but didn’t receive much run support from the Giants spotty offense. However, K.C. has a great mix of young and experienced guys that will without a doubt rank among the league’s best in offensive stats. Adding Sanchez in the 3rd spot of the rotation, behind Bruce Chen and Luke Hochevar, could be just the spark that manager Ned Yost needs for his young pitching staff.

Oakland A’s, (OF) Josh Reddick

The left-handed hitting outfielder is projected to split time with Colin Cowgill this season, but I believe that Reddick has the potential to be an everyday player. The A’s kicked off the 2012 MLB regular season with two games in Japan against the Mariners. In those two games, Josh started in left field and had a pair of hits, one being a home run. Even though his major league experience may be somewhat limited, in the 87 games he played with Boston last season, he batted .280 with and on-base percentage of .327. I know, those are not numbers that are going to make anyone fall out of their seats, but believe me, this kid can play. He has spent 3 seasons in the Red Sox’s organization and being that he has not been an everyday player; it is easy for a guy like this to slip thru the cracks. In 39 at-bats this spring, Josh has batted .333 with 2 home runs and 11 runs batted in. He may not get much pub this year with a lot of the focus on the A’s new highly touted outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, but watch for Josh Reddick to show up every day and put up respectable numbers.

Arizona Diamondbacks, (OF) Jason Kubel

After spending 8 seasons in Minnesota, Jason Kubel signed a two-year, $15 million dollar deal with the Diamondbacks this off-season. It is said that Jason will get the start in left field for Arizona, ahead of Gerardo Parra, who won a Gold Glove in 2011. The Diamondbacks had an incredible run last season, with a handful of young guys having breakout seasons to fuel the team’s success. Kubel may not be the best fit defensively for the D-Backs in left field, but I think that it’s his consistency and experience that has my eye on him this season. He has averaged 18 home runs and 79 RBI over the past five seasons. Also, he has played in over 125 games in four of those five seasons, with the one exception being last year in which he played in 99 games. Like I said previously, it is not the stats that have me liking this off-season acquisition. Jason is a good locker room guy that can show some of these young guys what it’s like to be an everyday producer in the big leagues. The Diamondbacks made it to the playoffs last year but were eliminated by the Brewers in the first round. Add the experience the young players got from that, and a true veteran like Kubel, the sky is the limit for this team.

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The Hot Stove: Offseason Moves That Will Change The MLB

In an era dominated by free agency, the game of baseball has never seemed so uncertain. Every off-season teams make moves that completely change the dynamic of the game, and this year is proving to be no different. We’ve already seen a few key acquisitions that will make teams that were merely in the hunt last year into teams that are now title contenders. As exciting as it is to follow the top prospects every move during their signing process, I can’t help but feel a little disappointed in what the game has become. Free agency and the general lack of a salary cap has changed the MLB (and many other sports) from a child’s game into a Wall Street minded business. The majority of players don’t have as much commitment to their teams and are willing to jump ship as soon as a rich, desperate team comes crawling to them with an inflated contract. Not that I can’t understand how hard it must be to turn down some of these offers, but does loyalty mean nothing?

I’ve watched countless superstars walk out on teams that have invested in them 100% and made the franchise their franchise; that’s just not right. I believe it also turns the game into a mere display of these star players, as opposed to a stage for a team to shine. Often times when you turn on a game you hear more talk about whether a guy like Albert Pujols will break a record then you do about whether his team will actually win; it’s a pretty dramatic shift from what the sport felt like when I began watching in the 90′s. At that time talk was all about the Brave’s Triple Threat of Glavine, Smoltz and Maddux or about the well rounded Yankees club that featured a young Jeter and Rivera among others. The point is I feel like I don’t even cheer for a team anymore, I’m essentially a fan of certain players I respect and enjoy watching, and quite frankly it’s not as enjoyable. However, this is the new MLB and it’s all about bringing in star power by whatever means necessary. With that being said let’s take a look around the game of baseball and see which  4 teams made the biggest splash in this year’s free agency

4. Yu Darvish & Joe Nathan, Texas Rangers: The Rangers made it clear that they needed to replace C.J Wilson and they got the job done. They ended up paying a hefty fee for it though, giving the prized Japanese ace Yu Darvish a 6-year, $60 million deal (in addition to the 51.7 Million they paid just to talk to him). Darvish is largely unproven playing only in the Japanese league, but scouts think he’s the best pitcher to come out of Japan…ever! The Rangers also quietly picked up Joe Nathan, a former all-star who if healthy could be one of the most underrated signings of the season. If you’re looking to get a couple of guys that won’t be rated too high in the fantasy baseball rankings, take a look at these two as their potential is enormous. Nathan will likely become the teams closer which only helps his fantasy value, get him while you can.

3. Prince Fielder, Detroit Tigers: The Tigers also addressed a need with a big free agent signing. After getting news that Victor Martinez would be sidelined the entire season with a badly torn ACL, the organization splurged and got a prized piece in Prince Fielder. Coming off a 38 HR and 120 RBI year (he also batted .299), Prince was due to get big money and he cashed in with a massive 9-year, $214 million deal. The deal should give the Tigers one of the best one-two punches in the game now as Miguel Cabrera (one of the top 5 hitters in baseball) and Fielder are sure to complement each other nicely. I look for Prince to compete for MVP this year as he may get a good amount of his at-bats at DH, which will keep him fresh throughout the season. If he can put up a 45 HR-130 RBI type of year I think Prince could break the barrier that no DH can win the most coveted award in baseball. Fantasy owners be sure to pick him with confidence.

2. Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Carlos Zambrano & Heath Bell, Miami Marlins: New team, new logo and new faces. That’s really the story with this team as the off-season saw many changes in the Marlins organization. Not only did they relocate, but they added top free agents that will blend well with their young core of talent. The biggest move they made was for Mets star Jose Reyes; a guy who has a knack for getting on base (.384 OBP last year) and can steal bases. Reyes’ speed is a game changer and having him lead off will be a great boost for Hanley Ramirez, who I now view as a #2 hitter. If Reyes can get on base, Hanley will drive him in which is great for both the team and for fantasy owners. I look for the Marlins to make a big push this year and Reyes could be the key to their resurgence. The Marlins also boosted their pitching staff by adding Mark Buehrle (could be one of the game’s best #2 starters) and took a chance by adding the volatile Carlos Zambrano. Zambrano could be a steal if he can control his temper, as he has shown he’s a very capable third or fourth starter. The Marlins also signed Heath Bell from the Padres to be their closer, a smart move for a team like this. Bell could be pivotal for this team as young squads often struggle to close out games. Bell can be that calming figure that shuts it down. If he plays at the level we’ve come to expect, Heath Bell could be a big fantasy contributor.

1. C.J Wilson & Albert Pujols, Los Angeles Angels: Well how do you beat a team that added four pretty damn good players to their roster? Simple..just sign Albert Pujols. Pujols agreed to an incentive loaded 10-year, $240 million deal that changed baseball for the next decade. The Angel’s signed the most consistent power hitter of the past decade and his impact will be felt immediately. Pujols has shown he can deliver in the clutch (last year’s playoffs were evidence enough) as he captained his Cardinals squad (that fought to make the playoffs) to a championship. The Angels also upgraded their starting pitching by getting the most sought after pitcher out there, C.J Wilson. Wilson went 16-7 last season and 15-8 the year before while showing the league that he’s one of the premier starters. Wilson and Dan Haren along with Cy-Young runner up Jered Weaver should team up to make one of baseball’s most formidable rotations. I like for Wilson to be the #3 guy and finish with similar stats to last season, which would be welcome news for all fantasy owners looking to pick him.

Who Do You Think Made The Biggest Splash? Is Pujols The Best Of All Time? Let Me Know!

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