Pushing the Panic Button in the Second Week of the Fantasy Baseball Season

Posted on April 16, 2012 by TheBaseballPage.com

If there is one thing that never ceases to amaze, it is the sheer number of fantasy baseball owners that panic as early as the second week of the baseball season. With such a small sample size, it is easy to over-react when players have a poor start to the season. However, there are often warning signs that begin to take shape early in a season and the key to success often lies in recognizing the difference between alarm and plain old ‘slow starters’. Here are several players and a diagnosis after less than two weeks of baseball games:

Michael Bourn (ATL)

The Braves leadoff man has managed to reach base only 5 times in his first 6 games so he hasn’t really had the chance to show off his wheels so far in 2012. With only 1 stolen base in 2 attempts, Bourne will no doubt pick things up once he starts swinging the bat a little better. Dee Gordon may be around to challenge Bourn’s National League stolen base crown but expect a bounce back for the Brave’s and the man at the top of their batting order.

Kevin Youkilis (BOS)

With only 2 hits in his first 20 at bats, Youkilis is off to a slow start along with the rest of his Red Sox teammates. Groin, hip and back injuries plagued him last season when he hit a career low .258. There were warning signs throughout spring training in regard to his health and he is a risky play to say the least. Although it is early, the Boston third basemen may be in for a long season.

Albert Pujols (LAA)

The new Angel has struggled out of the gate with only 5 hits in his first six games (with 0 home runs). Is his slow start due to switching teams? Switching leagues? Has his bat slowed down? None of the above. Pujols got off to a slow start in 2011 and ended the season with his usual home run rate and impressive counting stats. The greatest hitter of his generation will still be the king of the hill. Be patient.

Mike Napoli (TEX)

Prior to 2011, Napoli struggled to get regular at bats even when splitting time between catching and acting as the DH. Last season while batting in a potent line up in a hitter’s paradise of a home park, Napoli had a career season on the strength of an impressive showing after the All Star break. Injuries and inconsistency have plagued Napoli throughout his time in the big leagues and a slow start in 2012 should not come as much of a surprise. If you can get decent value in a trade, I say pull the trigger.

Jose Bautista (TOR)

The naysayers have been predicting his decline for the last 2 seasons. Hitting only .174 (4 hits in 6 games) to open the year, Bautista has said that his timing is a little off. Don’t let the poor second half of 2011 fool you. The Jays slugger has admitted to an injury which slowed him after the All Star break last season. The Jays’ clubhouse and on-field leader will soon be terrorizing AL East pitchers again very soon.

Giancarlo Stanton (MIA)

Stanton has been slowed by a knee issue all throughout spring training and into the regular season. It doesn’t seem to be a major issue but that doesn’t make it any less alarming. In fact, a lingering problem can be much worse than one that lands a player on the disabled list since playing through a nagging injury often leads to an unproductive season at the plate. There are some warning signs here to be heeded.

Although it is never a good idea to ‘panic’ in fantasy baseball (this leads to far too many rash decisions which could cost you the season), when players get off to a slow start, it is often nothing more than a mini-slump. However, there are always cases where it could warrant concern.

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2012 Fantasy Baseball Outfielder Rankings

Posted on March 21, 2012 by TheBaseballPage.com

To help prep you for the upcoming fantasy baseball season, we are helping all fantasy owners get started on their research. Today is the Fantasy Outfielder Rankings. Make sure you stay on top of everything so you are ready as soon as the 2012 season gets underway!

American League

1. Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays: Bautista followed up his 54 HR campaign with another 43 long balls. Just as impressive was his batting average improvement to .302 (1.055 OPS).

2. Curtis Granderson, New York Yankees: I was high on Granderson last year and he delivered to the tune of a .262-136-41-119-25 season. If he could improve the average he could challenge for the top spot in AL-Only leagues.

3. Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston Red Sox: I’d say you were lying if you said you saw the power coming. Ellsbury slugged 32 HRs. With a .321 average, 119 runs, 105 RBI, and 39 SBs he was easily one of the most complete outfielders last year. He’s just 28 so there is no reason to think he’ll fall off.

4. Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers: Let’s go with a little risk/reward play. Hamilton can flat out rake. He could be the top option if you didn’t have to worry about injury or his addictions.

5. Carl Crawford, Boston Red Sox: Crawford crashed and burned in Boston, and could miss the start of the season. I feel he is too talented not to bounce back though.

6. Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals: After four mostly disappointing seasons Gordon finally figured things out. He posted a .303-101-23-87-17 line. With his pedigree, he should be able to build on his success.

7. Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles: Jones does a bit of everything, as evidenced by his .280-68-25-83-12 line. Assuming he can get his run total back around 80 he should be a solid number one AL-Only fantasy outfielder.

8. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay Rays: Zobrist is nice because you can also use him at second base. Aside from his average, his .269-99-20-91-19 line is rock solid.

9. Nelson Cruz, Texas Rangers: Cruz can mash (84 HRs over the past three years), but can he stay healthy (130 missed games over the same span)?

10. B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay Rays: He continues to struggle with his average (.241, .237, .243 over past three years), but he has 52 HRs and 120 SBs over the span.

11. Shin-Cho Choo, Cleveland Indians: Choo was limited to 85 games last year, but he has been a solid across the board contributor the past 2.5 years.

12. Desmond Jennings, Tampa Bay Rays: In 63 games he hit 10 HRs and stole 20 bases. His upside is off the charts.

13. Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners: Moving to third in the lineup will likely mean less stolen bases, but he could still steal 25+. You know the average will be there. The runs could decrease, but he’ll have the opportunity to drive in more runs.

14. Nick Swisher, New York Yankees: Swisher has averaged 26.1 HRs over the past seven seasons.

15. Brett Gardner, New York Yankees: He has averaged 48 stolen bases over the past two seasons.

16. Yoenis Cespedes, Oakland A’s: I know he is a bit of the unknown, and not playing in a potent offense, but the power potential is huge.

17. Vernon Wells, Los Angeles Angels: Wells has combined for 56 HRs over the past two years. The Angels could move him, but he should be productive wherever he ends up.

18. Josh Willingham, Minnesota Twins: Smacked 29 HRs last year and has averaged 21.8 long balls over the past six seasons. Coming to Minnesota could sap his power, but he still should approach twenty or more.

19. Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles: He does a bit of everything, he just doesn’t excel in any category.

20. Torii Hunter, Los Angeles Angels: Hunter has averaged 24.3 HRs over the past 11 years.

National League

1. Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers: Matt Kemp was one home run shy of reaching the 40-40 club. Throw in 115 runs, 126 RBI, and a .324 batting average (.986 OPS) and you have the most complete fantasy outfielder in baseball.

2. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers: Assuming that his production won’t dip following his failed test and overturned suspension, he’s a fantasy monster.

3. Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies: CarGo was a disappointment, but he still managed a .295-92-26-92-20 campaign despite missing 35 games.

4. Justin Upton, Arizona Diamondbacks: Hard to argue with a .289-105-31-88-21 line, especially from a 24-year old.

5. Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins: Slugged 34 HRs last year, and the addition of Jose Reyes should provide more RBI opportunities. He could easily lead the league in HRs and RBI.

6. Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates: Had a rough season (.259 average) by his standards, but he saw his power jump to 23 HRs. He should be a solid contributor in all five categories.

7. Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds: The power is definitely there. He slugged 34 HRs last year with 97 RBI. He already has 100 career home runs and he’ll turn just 25 in April.

8. Matt Holliday, St. Louis Cardinals: Albert Pujols is going to be missed. How could he not be? Still, Holliday is coming off a .296-83-22-75-2 line in 124 games. At 32 he’s not quite ready to lose OF1 status.

9. Hunter Pence, Philadelphia Phillies: Nothing wrong with a .314-84-22-97-8 line. He was even better for the Phillies posting a .324 average and .954 OPS.

10. Michael Bourn, Atlanta Braves: I don’t like overpaying for steals, but Bourn gets you so many. He has averaged 58 SBs over the past three seasons. He should post a decent average and approach 100 runs.

11. Michael Morse, Washington Nationals: He followed up a strong 2010 second half with a .305-73-31-95-2 line. I’m a believer.

12. Corey Hart, Milwaukee Brewers: Hart has averaged 28.5 HRs over the past two seasons, and has hit 20 or more in four of the past five. He’ll also steal you a few bases.

13. Andre Ethier, Los Angeles Dodgers: Ethier was a shell of himself last year with 11 HRs. He combined for 74 HRs his previous three seasons though. Health is an issue as Ethier has missed 50 games over the past two seasons.

14. Shane Victorino, Philadelphia Phillies: Fresh off a .279-95-17-61-19 season, you know what you’re getting from Victorino. A solid run total, decent HRs, and nice SBs. It’s a bonus if he can get his average back around .290.

15. Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves: Heyward had a tough year (.227-50-14-42-9). I feel he’s too good not to bounce back.

16. Drew Stubbs, Cincinnati Reds: He’s a power/speed combo guy, but his 40 SBs were more impressive than his 15 HRs.

17. Cameron Maybin, San Diego Padres: Swiped 40 bases last year. He will turn 25 this year so he likely just scratched the surface.

18. Jayson Werth, Washington Nationals: Werth missed playing at Citizens Bank Park. He still managed 20 HRs and has the potential for more.

19. Michael Cuddyer, Colorado Rockies: Cuddy hit 20 last year for Minnesota, a number that could increase in Colorado.

20. Carlos Beltran, St. Louis Cardinals: After injuries cut short his 2009 and 2010 seasons, Beltran rebounded with 22 HRs.

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2012 Fantasy Baseball Third Base Rankings

Posted on March 16, 2012 by TheBaseballPage.com

To help prep you for the upcoming fantasy baseball season, we are helping all fantasy owners get started on their research. Today is the Fantasy Third Basemen Rankings. Make sure you stay on top of everything so you are ready as soon as the 2012 season gets underway!

American League

1. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers: He was probably the top first baseman before the Prince Fielder signing. Now that he’s moving over to the hot corner, he easily tops this shallow position.

2. Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays: Proved that 2010 was not a fluke with 43 home runs last year. His 3B/OF eligibility is a bonus.

3. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays: Had a down year, but still mashed 31 HRs. His four-year average of 28.3 HRs and 100.3 RBI speaks for itself.

4. Adrian Beltre, Texas Rangers: He was limited to 124 games last year, but still managed 32 HRs and 105 RBI. Expect big things if he can stay healthy.

5. Brett Lawrie, Toronto Blue Jays: Sparkled in his 150 at bats, hitting .293 with 26 runs, nine HRs, and 25 RBI.

6. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox: The Greek God of Walks hit just .258 with 17 HRs. He has yet to play 150 games in a season and has missed 102 games over the past two years. When he plays he’s effective, but you’ll need a contingency plan.

7. Michael Young, Texas Rangers: The dude doesn’t age or slow down. You’re not going to get home runs from him, but expect a .300+ average and a solid number of runs and RBI.

8. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees: It’s hard not to consider A-Rod a top-ten third base option (mixed leagues), but he will turn 37 and hit just 16 home runs in 99 games. Plus, he was brutal during the postseason. Regression has clearly began.

9. Mark Reynolds, Baltimore Orioles: The average is going to be brutal (.238 lifetime hitter), but he has averaged 38.3 HRs over the past four years. Unfortunately the stolen bases have taken a hit.

10. Mike Moustakas, Kansas City Royals: He wasn’t entirely impressive, hitting .263 with a .675 OPS. He finished strong though, hittin g.352 with four HRs and 12 RBI in September.

11. Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto Blue Jays: He will be used primarily at designated hitter, but will also get some time at both corner infield positions. He too can provide home runs, though he doesn’t tend to drive many runs in. He hit .272 last year, but regression in that category is likely for the career .260 hitter.

12. Danny Valencia, Minnesota Twins: He regressed from his 85-game debut in 2010 to post a .246-63-15-72-2 line. There is definite room for improvement, he’ll just need to work on his consistency.

National League

1. Hanley Ramirez, Miami Marlins: He had a down year, and could struggle switching to third base, but his power/speed combo, plus SS eligibility make him an attractive option.

2. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals: Only played in 101 games last year, and saw his OPS did a full 100 points to .798, but he has shown that he’s a big time hitter when he can stay healthy.

3. David Wright, New York Mets: Only played 102 games and had a career low .772 OPS. He should bounce back though as he did in 2010. His stolen bases give him a bump.

4. Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco Giants: With a lot of third basemen missing significant time and/or experiencing a down year, it was nice to see Kung Fu Panda return to form. His .315-55-23-70-2 line in 117 games is encouraging. He hit .325 with a .963 OPS after the break.

5. Aramis Ramirez, Milwaukee Brewers: He moved north to Milwaukee. He was healthy last year, playing in 149 games after combining for 206 in the previous two seasons. He has good power and will give you a decent average. He’ll miss Prince, but at least Braun avoided suspension.

6. David Freese, St. Louis Cardinals: He was a monster during the postseason for the Cardinals, setting the record with 21 RBI. He wasn’t too shabby during the regular season either, posting a .297-41-10-55-1 line in 333 at bats. He’ll need to step up his game with Albert Pujols moving on.

7. Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves: Chipper just keeps going. He will turn 40 in April, but is still productive. In 126 games Jones posted a solid .275-56-18-70-2 line. You have to be prepared that Chipper will miss some time, but he could give you some pop from the hot corner slot.

8. Ty Wiggington, Philadelphia Phillies: He will get his work at first base for the Phillies early on until Ryan Howard returns from injury. He will likely see time at third base and in the outfield as well. He doesn’t do much for average, but he should be able to provide some HRs and RBI.

9. Ryan Roberts, Arizona Diamondbacks: He plays third base, but has second base eligibility. He posted a solid .249-86-19-65-18 line. He was up and down though and his numbers tailed off at the end of the year.

10. Casey McGahee, Pittsburgh Pirates: He was acquired after Aramis Ramirez signed with Milwaukee. He will compete for time with Pedro Alvarez. Both struggled last year, and despite a horrific .191 average and .561 OPS, it is Alvarez’s job to lose. At 25, Alvarez is worth the risk. McGahee isn’t worth drafting unless he somehow wins a starting job.

11. Pedro Alvarez, Pittsburgh Pirates: See McGahee above.

12. Chase Headley, San Diego Padres: He gives you a decent amount of stolen bases for a third baseman, but does little else.

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