Foolish Francona

Terry Francona will be a hero in Boston no matter what he does.  He can pop Vicodin and throw fried chicken on the field while Jon Lester and Josh Beckett flip cups and it wouldn’t change how I and every other Boston fan feels.  Sure, when he was coming to the end of his run as manager last year it got fans upset with the Sox and Francona, but now that it’s a new season he’s back on his golden platform.  He brought two World Series to Boston, and if you can do that, you’re a demigod for life.

Now, Francona is trying his best to piss every fan off.  He announced that he wouldn’t be attending the Fenway Park centennial that celebrates the 100th anniversary of the landmark.  All former players and coaches were invited, including Francona.  For some odd reason, he’s felt the need to continually complain about the way his firing was handled.  I’m sure whatever upper management did was undeserved and crass, as are nearly all parting of ways in sports.  However, Francona needs to take a lesson from the million other athletes and managers that have had their job taken away in a sudden and insulting manner, he needs to be quiet.  The city made him a hero for life and there’s no reason to take jabs at that legacy with quotes to the network he works at.  If he doesn’t want to go, don’t, but he shouldn’t continue to voice his displeasure.  He needed to go after he lost control of his clubhouse, that’s just the way things go Terry.  Hopefully, for all Red Sox fans, Terry will ease into his announcing job at ESPN and stop making their headlines with his unnecessary comments.  There really is nothing Terry Francona could do to make me and every other Bostonian hate him, but he’s certainly trying.

Fantasy Baseball: BABIP Wonders – Five Pitchers That Could Regress

We took a look at the pitchers that could regress based on last year’s BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play). Here is what we came up with:

Jeremy Hellickson, Tampa Bay Rays: Hellickson went 13-10 with a stellar 2.95 ERA. He is a quality pitcher, but you can’t help be a little worried that he posted a league-low (among starters) .223 BABIP last year. Especially pitching in the potent AL East division.

Ricky Romero, Toronto Blue Jays: Similary BABIP success (.242) and in the same division. His mark has steadily improved from .333 as a rookie to .289 as a sophomore to last year’s mark. Similarly his ERA has dipped from 4.30 to 3.73 to 2.92 last year. He’s good, but I’m afraid he’s not going to post another sub-3.00 ERA this year.

Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox: He had his lowest BABIP (.245) of his career, which in turn lead to the lowest ERA (2.89). Given his injury history, I wouldn’t be surprised to see those numbers increase more towards his career .290 and 3.84 marks.

Josh Tomlin, Cleveland Indians: Finally, a non-AL East pitcher to crack the list. He has a solid track record in the minors of low BABIP, but his .253 BABIP mark (along with his 4.25 ERA) may be hard to duplicate. His ERA jumped from 2.74 through May to 5.24 for the balance of the year. His BABIP also climbed in the second half.

Michael Pineda, New York Yankees: Not only does he have the going from Safeco and the AL West to Yankee Stadium and the AL East going against him, but he is a BABIP regression risk as well. Other than A+ ball, he has never had a mark as low as last year’s .258. His numbers were much worse in the second half, especially his ERA which went from 3.03 before the break to 5.12 following it.

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The AL East Rule

2011 was one of the most unpredictable seasons baseball has ever offered up, and things are about to get even more interesting. As the collapse of the Boston Red Sox was imminent, division rival Tampa Bay was there waiting to steal their postseason berth as the Wild Card winner. The Red Sox simply withered down the stretch when it counted most, going a horrific 7-20 in September while blowing a nine game lead in the standings, which is just unheard of unless you’re the 2007 New York Mets (Yes their failure is still worse). The effect this had on the Boston roster can be seen by the overhaul they went through this off-season, firing both their General Manager and Manager days after the team had officially failed to make the playoffs.

A bit into the off-season, the MLB decided to institute a rule change that has many shaking their heads. The decision they made was to add a second Wild Card postseason team to each league, thus enhancing the amount of games that would take place and aid some teams hoping to make a “Cinderella” type of run, much like the opportune St. Louis Cardinals team did last season in winning it all.

The problem I have with the rule change is the implication it has on competition. It rewards teams that aren’t deserving of making the playoffs, but are suited for a playoff series. For instance, last season’s Red Sox team looked like the favorite for most of the year to go all the way. They had three very solid starters in Jon Lester, Josh Beckett and rising talent Clay Buchholz. Although these starters struggled mightily all season and never gained any type of consistency, I think every team in the AL was happy to not have to face those guys in a playoff series format.

I am a diehard Red Sox fan, and I was extremely bitter last season when the Rays led a spirited charge on the last day of the regular season to steal the Wild Card, but the Sox had it coming. They absolutely dogged it down the stretch and didn’t look hungry out there. Had they earned “the second” Wild Card spot, I would have been ashamed because there shouldn’t be consolation prizes in sports. The rule change seems to be more about making money and satisfying big markets than about improving the competitiveness of the game, and that’s just not right. Baseball fans have become accustomed to the suspense that comes with fighting for that Wild Card, especially in a division as fiercely contested as the AL East.

It’s also unfair to cater rules to big market teams in my opinion, because it furthers the gap of fair play. Although some will say this rule will help small market teams weasel into a playoff spot, the more likely outcome is that a team like Rays, Angels or Red Sox will scoop up that second Wild Card and possibly make a run at a World Series Title (this would be great for the MLB as these teams are the money makers of the league, and this rule change is telling of where their priorities are). Should this scenario occur, I believe fans (of other teams) have a right to say that team should have never been given that chance.

Baseball, at least in my opinion, is one of the most consistent sports in the sense that powerhouse franchises will always be just that, and small market teams will always be just that; you can’t change a team’s financial strength overnight. I think the MLB should have given this more thought before implementing this change, because they are sacrificing the excitement of playoff baseball all for more revenue.

At the end of the day one can understand that baseball is a business, but greed has its consequences and the addition of a second Wild Card team will only make the playoffs feel more dragged out, which will ultimately hurt baseball’s appeal to fans. The number one complaint from fans of baseball is that the games are too long (another big concern as an average game takes about 3 hours) and that the season may be too many games. Yet how do the MLB Executives respond? With more games of course! The new format will not be more exciting, it’s nothing more than a way to sell more merchandise and tickets for the teams that gets in on those last playoff spots. The concept also has a novelty aspect to it that doesn’t bode well for the game, because you’re supposed to earn your spot in the playoffs not be handed one.

One parting observation…if the rule change is instituted this season, 10 out of 30 teams would make the playoffs, but how many of those teams will realistically deserve to be there? The answer to that question is surely not 10, and may be less than 5; just some food for thought.

Do you like the rules change? How could it be better? Opinions?