Manny Ramirez’s Mess

Posted on March 25, 2012 by wcornblatt

I’ve never seen a better hitter than Manny Ramirez in his prime. The swing, the stance, everything just came so naturally. He was an impossible out at times, and a guaranteed swing and miss at others. It was all about how Manny felt that day. He’s a career .312 hitter with more than 550 home runs and 1800 RBIs. After what looked like an ugly ending, Manny is back!

A looming suspension for performance enhancing drugs made Manny retire, but he returned to the Oakland Athletics where he’ll serve his 50 game suspension. A 39-year old slugger, Ramirez will hope he can effectively help Oakland as a DH. He can’t hurt after a 74-88 season for the A’s. However Manny’s life has gotten ugly, and as an avid Red Sox fan it’s disheartening to watch the high-fiving and clowning clutch megastar I once admired taking jobs with any team that will have him. The same slacker bravado that made Manny appealing when he was dominating made him obnoxious when his career turned embarrassing. Lazy, lackadaisical trots to first base were charming when you knew that Manny would be locked in come October. Now, he’s just another star that has to play a niche role for a non-contender so he can pay off the extra set of rims he bought on credit five years ago.

Like Ray Allen’s shot or Roger Federer’s backhand, Manny Ramirez had a poetic swing. Maybe Manny’s success was interlocked with his cocky and carefree attitude, and the same swagger that made him infinitely dangerous caused his downfall. Maybe his story is a lesson for all athletes blessed with extraordinary natural abilities. Humility is essential for longevity.

New Look Free Agency

Posted on March 24, 2012 by TheBaseballPage.com

The hot, new trend in baseball is to sign guys super young.

The Indians signed Grady Sizemore to a 6-year deal in 2006, with a team option in 2012 (that they ended up declining). At the time, the deal was the largest ever for a player with less than two years of experience.

Since Sizemore, several other young players inked big deals.

During 2008, Evan Longoria signed a 6-year deal in his rookie season. Then, that following offseason, Troy Tulowitzki got a 7-year contract before hitting arbitration. Ryan Braun wouldn’t be outdone though, netting an 8-year contract the same offseason.

In 2009, Ryan Zimmerman inked a 5-year contract, buying out all his arbitration years and two free agent years.

In 2010, Justin Upton signed a 6-year contract with the Diamondbacks, foregoing arbitration. Adam Lind and the Blue Jays pulled a similar move, agreeing to a 4-year deal before he hit arbitration.

You get the picture. A smattering of young players in recent years received long-term contracts well before teams ran out team-controlled and/or arbitration years.

This offseason, the signings went to a new level. Rays super-prospect Matt Moore goes into his rookie season with a 5-year contract (plus 3 team option years). Royals catcher Salvador Perez got a similar contract as well, though for less money. Just before spring training, Jay Bruce, Andrew McCutchen, and Cameron Maybin all signed contract extensions well before free agency. Signing young players to long-term deals is currently the vogue thing to do.

The contracts current young stars sign are billed as a win-win. Young players earn some more money up front than teams are obligated to give them. In return, the team buys out arbitration years, and commonly a free agent year or two. Both sides get cost certainty, and added money up front gives a player an incentive to let a team get a few potentially cheap years out of them on the back end of the contract.

My issue is that baseball’s archaic contract system makes the Matt Moore and Salvador Perez contracts sensible. The team-controlled years are a holdover from baseball’s famed reserve clause, which used to keep a player tied to their team forever. The reserve clause became a part of the National League in 1880, and Major League Baseball did not have free agency until the late 1970s. Suddenly, with free agency, salaries skyrocketed, suggesting that teams used the reserve clause to suppress player salaries.

The recent uptick in long-term contracts handed out to inexperienced players is a new twist on the same reserve clause issue. Many young players are still vastly underpaid – so much so that they will accept a long-term contract that all but guarantees they will be underpaid at the start of their prime (the end of their contract) to gain some more cash up front. Major League Baseball’s contract system suppresses the income of young players. Now, teams with promising young players manipulate the system’s inefficiency by signing their budding talents to long-term contracts with money they weren’t obligated to offer.

If I were commissioner, I would be troubled by the stream of recent contracts to younger players. The respond could be so simple too: expand free agency. What would Major League Baseball look like if free agency replaced arbitration?

Last season, 142 players were arbitration eligible, and 243 players filed for free agency. The free agent pool would have literally been over 50% larger. However, arbitration does not pay players fair market value*, so teams would not have over 50% more money to spend on free agents.

*Arbitration is designed as a process to gradually bring a player up to their fair market value. It blatantly states that it does not pay a player what they would get in the open market, and that they aren’t making the money they should be in the first place.

As a result, two things should happen. First, younger stars in the game would get paid like stars, because they would hit the open market. Second, the average salary of a free agent should actually go down, simply because there would be less money to go around per player. Putting those two points together, a third consequence comes to light. If some younger players earn more money, but free agents overall make less money per player, then some solid veterans should make less money than in the current system. This might allow smaller market teams to pursue veterans that are harder for them to get right now.

Flooding the open market with arbitration-eligible players would profoundly impact the nature of the free agency. I value efficiency though, and the open market is the best place to foster it. If teams are smart enough to manipulate the current system, they are also smart enough to properly value younger players in free agency.

Teams pay their best young players millions of dollars, even in a system that practically begs them to steer away from such commitments. The current system has already been turned on its head by a growing group of progressive organizations. Teams are ready to pay all players based on merit. Expanding free agency would be more fair to young players, and allow contract values to more accurately reflect a player’s abilities. Signing young players may stay trendy, but the contracts would be more fair with expanded free agency.

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Stupidity Strikes the Red Sox and Yankees

Posted on March 23, 2012 by wcornblatt

In baseball, relievers are essential. A good middle reliever separates good teams from great teams. So for teams that expect to make the playoffs like the Red Sox and Yankees, any bullpen support is a comforting feeling. Unfortunately for the Sox and Yanks, Kenny Powers-like stupidity has struck relievers Bobby Jenks and Joba Chamberlain. Chamberlain injured his right ankle Thursday jumping on a trampoline with his kids. The legendary non-sports, sports injury is as frustrating as it gets. Easy rider Roethlisberger scared the terrible out of Steelers fans when his motorcycle accident placed him in serious condition. Tight end Kellen Winslow Jr. lost a whole season to a motorcycle accident. In Chamberlain’s case, I’m not sure how you prepare for the accident, because I don’t really see an anti-trampoline clause coming to any contracts anytime soon. Whether or not Joba could’ve avoided this clumsy injury is irrelevant at this point. Now, after emergency surgery, his future is up in the air. So is the future of Phil Hughes, whose possible trade situation is affected dramatically by the injury. No professional athlete should be injured jumping on a trampoline, but at least that’s an accident in the true sense of the word.

Bobby Jenks, on the other hand, is a moron. The plagued Red Sox reliever was arrested for DUI, destruction of property and leaving the scene of a crime at around 4 a.m. last night. This isn’t the first problem Jenks has had with alcohol. In 2002, he was demoted class AA by the Angels for bringing beer on the team bus. In 2010 Jenks claimed to have given up alcohol because of his four children. He’s also dealt with several injuries including two surgeries this off-season. His future was uncertain already, but a Red Sox team with a limited bullpen needed him as an option. Daniel Bard, who attempted to go from reliever to starter this spring, might have to return to his original position with Jenks’ controversy and sub-par starting numbers in the grapefruit league. It’s a frustrating day for both teams. Both of these relievers aren’t necessarily stars, but a successful baseball team is made of pieces, and none are more important than bullpen pawns. It looks, for now, like two valuable pawns are in jeopardy.

2012 Fantasy Baseball Outfielder Rankings

Posted on March 21, 2012 by TheBaseballPage.com

To help prep you for the upcoming fantasy baseball season, we are helping all fantasy owners get started on their research. Today is the Fantasy Outfielder Rankings. Make sure you stay on top of everything so you are ready as soon as the 2012 season gets underway!

American League

1. Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays: Bautista followed up his 54 HR campaign with another 43 long balls. Just as impressive was his batting average improvement to .302 (1.055 OPS).

2. Curtis Granderson, New York Yankees: I was high on Granderson last year and he delivered to the tune of a .262-136-41-119-25 season. If he could improve the average he could challenge for the top spot in AL-Only leagues.

3. Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston Red Sox: I’d say you were lying if you said you saw the power coming. Ellsbury slugged 32 HRs. With a .321 average, 119 runs, 105 RBI, and 39 SBs he was easily one of the most complete outfielders last year. He’s just 28 so there is no reason to think he’ll fall off.

4. Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers: Let’s go with a little risk/reward play. Hamilton can flat out rake. He could be the top option if you didn’t have to worry about injury or his addictions.

5. Carl Crawford, Boston Red Sox: Crawford crashed and burned in Boston, and could miss the start of the season. I feel he is too talented not to bounce back though.

6. Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals: After four mostly disappointing seasons Gordon finally figured things out. He posted a .303-101-23-87-17 line. With his pedigree, he should be able to build on his success.

7. Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles: Jones does a bit of everything, as evidenced by his .280-68-25-83-12 line. Assuming he can get his run total back around 80 he should be a solid number one AL-Only fantasy outfielder.

8. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay Rays: Zobrist is nice because you can also use him at second base. Aside from his average, his .269-99-20-91-19 line is rock solid.

9. Nelson Cruz, Texas Rangers: Cruz can mash (84 HRs over the past three years), but can he stay healthy (130 missed games over the same span)?

10. B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay Rays: He continues to struggle with his average (.241, .237, .243 over past three years), but he has 52 HRs and 120 SBs over the span.

11. Shin-Cho Choo, Cleveland Indians: Choo was limited to 85 games last year, but he has been a solid across the board contributor the past 2.5 years.

12. Desmond Jennings, Tampa Bay Rays: In 63 games he hit 10 HRs and stole 20 bases. His upside is off the charts.

13. Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners: Moving to third in the lineup will likely mean less stolen bases, but he could still steal 25+. You know the average will be there. The runs could decrease, but he’ll have the opportunity to drive in more runs.

14. Nick Swisher, New York Yankees: Swisher has averaged 26.1 HRs over the past seven seasons.

15. Brett Gardner, New York Yankees: He has averaged 48 stolen bases over the past two seasons.

16. Yoenis Cespedes, Oakland A’s: I know he is a bit of the unknown, and not playing in a potent offense, but the power potential is huge.

17. Vernon Wells, Los Angeles Angels: Wells has combined for 56 HRs over the past two years. The Angels could move him, but he should be productive wherever he ends up.

18. Josh Willingham, Minnesota Twins: Smacked 29 HRs last year and has averaged 21.8 long balls over the past six seasons. Coming to Minnesota could sap his power, but he still should approach twenty or more.

19. Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles: He does a bit of everything, he just doesn’t excel in any category.

20. Torii Hunter, Los Angeles Angels: Hunter has averaged 24.3 HRs over the past 11 years.

National League

1. Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers: Matt Kemp was one home run shy of reaching the 40-40 club. Throw in 115 runs, 126 RBI, and a .324 batting average (.986 OPS) and you have the most complete fantasy outfielder in baseball.

2. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers: Assuming that his production won’t dip following his failed test and overturned suspension, he’s a fantasy monster.

3. Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies: CarGo was a disappointment, but he still managed a .295-92-26-92-20 campaign despite missing 35 games.

4. Justin Upton, Arizona Diamondbacks: Hard to argue with a .289-105-31-88-21 line, especially from a 24-year old.

5. Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins: Slugged 34 HRs last year, and the addition of Jose Reyes should provide more RBI opportunities. He could easily lead the league in HRs and RBI.

6. Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates: Had a rough season (.259 average) by his standards, but he saw his power jump to 23 HRs. He should be a solid contributor in all five categories.

7. Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds: The power is definitely there. He slugged 34 HRs last year with 97 RBI. He already has 100 career home runs and he’ll turn just 25 in April.

8. Matt Holliday, St. Louis Cardinals: Albert Pujols is going to be missed. How could he not be? Still, Holliday is coming off a .296-83-22-75-2 line in 124 games. At 32 he’s not quite ready to lose OF1 status.

9. Hunter Pence, Philadelphia Phillies: Nothing wrong with a .314-84-22-97-8 line. He was even better for the Phillies posting a .324 average and .954 OPS.

10. Michael Bourn, Atlanta Braves: I don’t like overpaying for steals, but Bourn gets you so many. He has averaged 58 SBs over the past three seasons. He should post a decent average and approach 100 runs.

11. Michael Morse, Washington Nationals: He followed up a strong 2010 second half with a .305-73-31-95-2 line. I’m a believer.

12. Corey Hart, Milwaukee Brewers: Hart has averaged 28.5 HRs over the past two seasons, and has hit 20 or more in four of the past five. He’ll also steal you a few bases.

13. Andre Ethier, Los Angeles Dodgers: Ethier was a shell of himself last year with 11 HRs. He combined for 74 HRs his previous three seasons though. Health is an issue as Ethier has missed 50 games over the past two seasons.

14. Shane Victorino, Philadelphia Phillies: Fresh off a .279-95-17-61-19 season, you know what you’re getting from Victorino. A solid run total, decent HRs, and nice SBs. It’s a bonus if he can get his average back around .290.

15. Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves: Heyward had a tough year (.227-50-14-42-9). I feel he’s too good not to bounce back.

16. Drew Stubbs, Cincinnati Reds: He’s a power/speed combo guy, but his 40 SBs were more impressive than his 15 HRs.

17. Cameron Maybin, San Diego Padres: Swiped 40 bases last year. He will turn 25 this year so he likely just scratched the surface.

18. Jayson Werth, Washington Nationals: Werth missed playing at Citizens Bank Park. He still managed 20 HRs and has the potential for more.

19. Michael Cuddyer, Colorado Rockies: Cuddy hit 20 last year for Minnesota, a number that could increase in Colorado.

20. Carlos Beltran, St. Louis Cardinals: After injuries cut short his 2009 and 2010 seasons, Beltran rebounded with 22 HRs.

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2012 Fantasy Baseball Third Base Rankings

Posted on March 16, 2012 by TheBaseballPage.com

To help prep you for the upcoming fantasy baseball season, we are helping all fantasy owners get started on their research. Today is the Fantasy Third Basemen Rankings. Make sure you stay on top of everything so you are ready as soon as the 2012 season gets underway!

American League

1. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers: He was probably the top first baseman before the Prince Fielder signing. Now that he’s moving over to the hot corner, he easily tops this shallow position.

2. Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays: Proved that 2010 was not a fluke with 43 home runs last year. His 3B/OF eligibility is a bonus.

3. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays: Had a down year, but still mashed 31 HRs. His four-year average of 28.3 HRs and 100.3 RBI speaks for itself.

4. Adrian Beltre, Texas Rangers: He was limited to 124 games last year, but still managed 32 HRs and 105 RBI. Expect big things if he can stay healthy.

5. Brett Lawrie, Toronto Blue Jays: Sparkled in his 150 at bats, hitting .293 with 26 runs, nine HRs, and 25 RBI.

6. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox: The Greek God of Walks hit just .258 with 17 HRs. He has yet to play 150 games in a season and has missed 102 games over the past two years. When he plays he’s effective, but you’ll need a contingency plan.

7. Michael Young, Texas Rangers: The dude doesn’t age or slow down. You’re not going to get home runs from him, but expect a .300+ average and a solid number of runs and RBI.

8. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees: It’s hard not to consider A-Rod a top-ten third base option (mixed leagues), but he will turn 37 and hit just 16 home runs in 99 games. Plus, he was brutal during the postseason. Regression has clearly began.

9. Mark Reynolds, Baltimore Orioles: The average is going to be brutal (.238 lifetime hitter), but he has averaged 38.3 HRs over the past four years. Unfortunately the stolen bases have taken a hit.

10. Mike Moustakas, Kansas City Royals: He wasn’t entirely impressive, hitting .263 with a .675 OPS. He finished strong though, hittin g.352 with four HRs and 12 RBI in September.

11. Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto Blue Jays: He will be used primarily at designated hitter, but will also get some time at both corner infield positions. He too can provide home runs, though he doesn’t tend to drive many runs in. He hit .272 last year, but regression in that category is likely for the career .260 hitter.

12. Danny Valencia, Minnesota Twins: He regressed from his 85-game debut in 2010 to post a .246-63-15-72-2 line. There is definite room for improvement, he’ll just need to work on his consistency.

National League

1. Hanley Ramirez, Miami Marlins: He had a down year, and could struggle switching to third base, but his power/speed combo, plus SS eligibility make him an attractive option.

2. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals: Only played in 101 games last year, and saw his OPS did a full 100 points to .798, but he has shown that he’s a big time hitter when he can stay healthy.

3. David Wright, New York Mets: Only played 102 games and had a career low .772 OPS. He should bounce back though as he did in 2010. His stolen bases give him a bump.

4. Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco Giants: With a lot of third basemen missing significant time and/or experiencing a down year, it was nice to see Kung Fu Panda return to form. His .315-55-23-70-2 line in 117 games is encouraging. He hit .325 with a .963 OPS after the break.

5. Aramis Ramirez, Milwaukee Brewers: He moved north to Milwaukee. He was healthy last year, playing in 149 games after combining for 206 in the previous two seasons. He has good power and will give you a decent average. He’ll miss Prince, but at least Braun avoided suspension.

6. David Freese, St. Louis Cardinals: He was a monster during the postseason for the Cardinals, setting the record with 21 RBI. He wasn’t too shabby during the regular season either, posting a .297-41-10-55-1 line in 333 at bats. He’ll need to step up his game with Albert Pujols moving on.

7. Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves: Chipper just keeps going. He will turn 40 in April, but is still productive. In 126 games Jones posted a solid .275-56-18-70-2 line. You have to be prepared that Chipper will miss some time, but he could give you some pop from the hot corner slot.

8. Ty Wiggington, Philadelphia Phillies: He will get his work at first base for the Phillies early on until Ryan Howard returns from injury. He will likely see time at third base and in the outfield as well. He doesn’t do much for average, but he should be able to provide some HRs and RBI.

9. Ryan Roberts, Arizona Diamondbacks: He plays third base, but has second base eligibility. He posted a solid .249-86-19-65-18 line. He was up and down though and his numbers tailed off at the end of the year.

10. Casey McGahee, Pittsburgh Pirates: He was acquired after Aramis Ramirez signed with Milwaukee. He will compete for time with Pedro Alvarez. Both struggled last year, and despite a horrific .191 average and .561 OPS, it is Alvarez’s job to lose. At 25, Alvarez is worth the risk. McGahee isn’t worth drafting unless he somehow wins a starting job.

11. Pedro Alvarez, Pittsburgh Pirates: See McGahee above.

12. Chase Headley, San Diego Padres: He gives you a decent amount of stolen bases for a third baseman, but does little else.

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